Mostly good stuff, but, like Bernie says,
he seems to assume that there is a set of people called “skeptics” out
there with a lot more commonality than I’ve ever
seen. The people who frequent this list
are probably more typical of skeptics in that there is a very wide range
of beliefs, education, knowledge, experience, and
so forth.
But I do disagree with one concept that
I think I saw in the article. That is, I think it is possible to be certain
that a particular thing is not true if there is sufficient
negative evidence against it. That is
to say, although no one can prove a negative, you can disprove a positive
by undercutting its claims.
Let’s use levitation for an example,
since that’s been talked about a lot on the list lately. It’s not an ambiguous
subject. Either a person can move an object using
nothing but their mind or they can’t.
Testing this is simple and easy. You don’t need statistics (and shouldn’t
use it), elaborate equipment, or anything else
(although some training in stage magic
and scams should probably be a requirement for investigating any type of
paranormal).
People say that they can levitate objects.
We test them. They can’t do it. At this point I think that Truzzi would
say that we should be agnostic and say that we
don’t know whether levitation exists
or not. I say that there’s no need to wait. The only reason that we think
that there might be such a thing in the first place is
because people say that they can do
it. If the best levitators in the world can’t really do what they say they
can, I see no reason to expect that anyone can do it
either. The negative evidence is compelling.
If these people can’t levitate, then no one can.
But wait. What if the psychics are test
shy? What if they only have powers on Thursday and we tested on Friday?
And so on? The real question is: do we have
to completely resolve every possible
option before making a decision? We cannot in reality test every human
on earth under every possible condition on to
infinity, therefore we test the most
likely candidates under the best conditions that they agree to beforehand
and make generalizations from that. As above, if the
best levitators can’t levitate objects
under conditions that they agree will allow them to be successful, then
no one can.
Agnosticism is only valid in theology
and philosophy. In science, you don’t have to test every drop of water
on earth to know what it’s made of. Truzzi’s main
thrust reminds me of the creationist’s
arguments that there is no such thing as an atheist. The argument goes
that to be an atheist, you have to be certain that there
are no gods anywhere in the universe.
The only way to know that is to know everything there is to know about
the universe. Since that is impossible, it’s
impossible to be an atheist. BS of a
low order.
Truzzi seems to agree with the “there
are no absolutes” part of science, but the part of science that he’s leaving
out is that you don’t actually need absolutes to
make good decisions. Based on the information
I have right now, this is what I think about blah-blah. Because of the
many years of testing by many different
people, I can confidently say that levitation
does not exist. I would only be uncertain (agnostic) about the subject
if some of the tests validated levitation and some
didn’t. Only then is a wait-and-see
position valid. That isn’t the case, so the large amount of negative evidence
(the multiple failures of the psychics) is enough to
declare the subject is false. Let’s
move on to the next question. If someone comes up with some new evidence
to support levitation at some point in the future,
we can open the file up again. Until
that time, it’s a solved problem.
An unbiased mind is what how we view a new subject, but there is no need to completely ignore history when dealing with the old subjects.
Fred Askew